Tensions in the South China Sea are on the rise, with escalating incidents threatening the region’s stability. If we don’t press the reset button soon, this area could become the next Ukraine—or worse. How can we prevent disaster? In this post, we’ll explore four essential steps Malaysia and ASEAN must take to avert conflict.
The Powder Keg Is Primed
2024 has seen a spike in confrontations across the South China Sea. Here are just a few examples:
- June and July: Near clashes between Chinese and Philippine ships around the Second Thomas Shoal.
- August: China protested Malaysia’s oil and gas drilling near the Luconia Shoals.
- September: Chinese ships encroached on Malaysian waters just days after the protest.
- Recently: A Chinese vessel collided with a Philippine coast guard ship near Sabina Shoal.
These incidents highlight a clear pattern of rising tensions, with over 180 similar encounters since 2010. The stakes aren’t just regional—they’re global.
Why Is the South China Sea So Important?
The South China Sea is vital for several reasons:
- Global trade: Over $3 trillion worth of goods pass through these waters annually.
- Energy reserves: The region holds vast oil and gas resources, enough to power Southeast Asia for decades.
- Human lives: Millions, including fishermen, oil workers, and coastal communities, depend on the sea for their livelihoods.
Conflict Is Closer Than You Think
It only takes a single naval standoff, one miscalculation, or one shot fired to ignite a much larger conflict. The recent incident where a Chinese vessel rammed a Philippine coast guard ship is a prime example. Had the ship sunk or soldiers died, the Philippines’ Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S. could have been invoked, pulling the U.S. into a direct conflict with China.
Such small incidents could spiral into full-blown war, involving outside powers like the U.S. and destabilizing the entire region.
While ASEAN states continue to uphold their rights under international law, the pressure is building. The South China Sea Code of Conduct is planned for 2026—but can we really afford to wait that long?
It’s Time for a Reset
This is where true leadership comes into play. As the incoming ASEAN Chair in 2025, Malaysia has a critical role to play. Here are four key actions that Malaysia and ASEAN must take:
1. Restore Trust Among ASEAN Claimants
One of the reasons tensions are rising is the erosion of trust among ASEAN claimant states. Some have turned to external powers for support, fearing they can’t rely on their neighbors. To rebuild this trust, ASEAN must unite and come together as a cohesive front.
2. Adopt a Two-Pronged Strategy with China
China has become adept at maintaining strong bilateral ties with ASEAN members while standing firm on its territorial claims. ASEAN should adopt a similar dual strategy—keeping good relations with China while maintaining their territorial claims. The ultimate resolution should be acceptable to all parties.
3. Strengthen ASEAN’s Neutrality
ASEAN has long held the principle that Southeast Asia should be free from external interference. This is embodied in ZOPFAN, the Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality, adopted in Kuala Lumpur in 1971. As the ASEAN Chair, Malaysia could push to elevate ZOPFAN into a formal framework, ensuring ASEAN’s independence from outside pressures and enabling Southeast Asia to shape its own destiny.
4. Rethink the Code of Conduct
Here’s the controversial point: it may be time to rethink the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. I was part of the Malaysian delegation in Phnom Penh in 2002 when the Declaration on the Code of Conduct was drafted, and it was a good step forward at the time. But 22 years later, progress has been slow.
The pursuit of this Code has trapped ASEAN claimant states in an endless cycle of negotiations, and it’s time to explore alternative options. If there’s interest, I’ll share my ideas on this in another post.
The Path Forward: Reset or Risk Conflict
This is ASEAN’s moment. As the Chair in 2025, Malaysia has the chance to lead ASEAN in taking bold actions to ensure peace and stability in the South China Sea. It won’t be easy, but it’s necessary.
Malaysia must use its influence through the ASEAN Dialogue process and demonstrate political will and statesmanship. The time for analysis is over; we need to act now.
It’s time to press reset—or risk war.
The clock is ticking.
What Do You Think?
How should Malaysia and ASEAN navigate these troubled waters? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. Don’t forget to check out our earlier posts to get a deeper understanding of what’s at stake, and subscribe for more insights—including alternative solutions for the South China Sea.
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